Iran's protests: has the Iranian regime reached its end?
In recent years, particularly from late 2025 into early 2026, Iran has experienced waves of protest unprecedented in their scale and character. These widespread protests reflect deep, almost universal public frustration with the Islamic government, the political system, the crumbling economy and ongoing repression. Whether we are witnessing the beginning of the regime's end or another "round" that will ultimately be suppressed remains a complex question, generating vigorous debate among researchers, political analysts and academics worldwide.
Society and the current protests
The current protests, which began in late December 2025 following the collapse of the currency, the rial, runaway inflation of around 50% to 60% a year, and an acute economic crisis, quickly spread to all 31 Iranian provinces, including areas once considered loyal to the regime. Unlike the "Woman, Life, Freedom" protests of 2022, which focused mainly on gender issues and human rights, the current wave is largely driven by everyday economic hardship, food prices, water shortages, power cuts and a situation in which entire sections of the upper middle class are being pushed into poverty.
Protesters include merchants from Tehran's Grand Bazaar, truck drivers, students, women, young people and even ethnic minorities, including Kurds, Arabs and others. The slogans have long since moved beyond economic reform to direct calls to overthrow the regime. "Neither Gaza nor Lebanon, my life for Iran" has become one of the most common.
The authorities' response was partly predictable: severe violence, mass arrests, the killing of dozens, perhaps hundreds, of protesters, and an almost complete internet shutdown nationwide, an extreme step taken before but lasting many days this time. Yet signs of weakness are also apparent: reports of security forces retreating before protesters, relatively limited use of lethal force compared with previous protests, and attempts by President Pezeshkian to offer "dialogue" with protesters, indicating a real fear of losing control.
Key factors affecting the regime's future
The strength of the establishment and armed forces: the Iranian system rests on a complex, integrated structure of religious institutions, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, the Basij and the Supreme Leader, which have so far remained relatively loyal. However, preliminary reports describe cracks, including instances of forces refraining from firing or even withdrawing. The regime still possesses significant repressive capacity, but the question is for how long.
International pressure and regional defeats: recent years have been strategically catastrophic, with the elimination or severe weakening of proxies, including Hezbollah, Hamas and the Assad regime, Israeli and American strikes on missile and nuclear facilities, and a general sense of military weakness following direct confrontations with Israel in 2025. Sanctions, combined with falling oil prices and economic losses, deepen the internal crisis and make it harder for the regime to "buy" loyalty.
Awareness, technology and organization: the development of social networks, the use of Starlink even during internet shutdowns, and growing awareness of the regime's failures across all areas enable faster organization and reduce the regime's ability to control the narrative.
Looking ahead: could 2026 be a turning point?
Most experts agree that the regime does not face immediate collapse in the coming days or weeks. The armed forces remain largely loyal, the opposition is divided, and there is no strong, unified leadership capable of capitalizing on the situation. However, many analysts increasingly feel that 2026 will be a critical year, perhaps one of the hardest in the Islamic Republic's history.
The regime is caught in a bind: violent repression could ignite a larger uprising, while substantial concessions could be seen as weakness and encourage protesters. Some believe we are seeing the beginning of the end of the regime as we know it, whether through profound forced reform, a transition to military rule or even gradual or sudden collapse.
Conclusion
The Iranian regime is not coming to an immediate end today, but it is in its weakest position in decades. The current protests, combined with economic failures, regional defeats and international pressure, create conditions that make a return to "business as usual" very difficult. The question is not whether changes will occur, but what form they will take, how quickly and at what cost. 2026 could become a historic turning point, whether toward reform, internal regime change or more difficult scenarios of chaos. Time will tell.
